Q9 Weekly | Tons of Fun

6 min readSep 21, 2023

21 September 2023

· Fed holds rates steady, BTC rises above $27k
· Correlation with Nasdaq increases
· Toncoin replaces Solana in crypto Top 10

Bitcoin has broken out of its recent sideways trading range, moving above $27k for the first time since August. This came as the Fed held interest rates steady this week, while indicating it still expects one more hike before the end of the year and fewer cuts than previously indicated next year.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

While the ‘no-hike’ was expected, there is uncertainty over where the rate-setting FOMC will go from here. Judging from documents, the bias appears toward more restrictive policy and a higher-for-longer approach to interest rates. This is in keeping with the bank’s strategy of moving more carefully in the latter stages of its fight against inflation.

The Fed also released a new set of individual economic projections, which forecast stronger growth this year and a more benign inflation outlook compared with previous estimates released in June.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Crypto markets held steady as the news broke. However, global equity markets fell and two-year treasuries hit their highest level since 2006 following the hawkish projections.

BTC and ETH Performance vs USD (5 Days)

Source: TradingView

BTC’s correlation with tech stocks has dramatically increased. After a breakdown in the directional relationship between the two asset classes in June, Bitcoin is back to mirroring the price moves of the surging Nasdaq 100 Index. The tech bellwether has rallied more than 40% this year amid the exuberance over artificial intelligence.

The 30-day correlation coefficient for Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 is back to almost 0.4 versus negative 0.1 or so in June and July (a reading of 1 indicates assets are moving in lockstep, while minus-1 would show they’re moving in opposite directions).

Correlation to Tech Stocks Climbs

Source: Bloomberg

As for the month ahead… October tends to be a month of huge outperformance for BTC, averaging +27% since 2013. Following this average would put BTC at $35k by the end on October.

Bitcoin Tends to Outperform in October

Source: https://twitter.com/CryptoJelleNL/status/1703656440726946278/photo/1

Pounds to Tons

Toncoin (TON) has surged by 37.8% to join the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap, pushing Solana into 11th place. Whilst most alt-coins have been sluggish of late, Toncoin has been busy putting in consistent double-digit performances.

Toncoin Joins Crypto Top 10

Source: CoinGecko

Originating from the creators of the popular messaging platform Telegram, Toncoin was initially created to be the native cryptocurrency of the Telegram Open Network (TON).

Toncoin (TON) Currently in a Strong Uptrend

Source: TradingView

This multi-blockchain platform aimed to offer low-cost crypto transactions while remaining highly scalable. However, Telegram faced significant regulatory hurdles from the SEC and distanced itself from the project — yet a passionate community of supporters have taken up the reins.

Since then, this community has driven Toncoin’s development and adoption, transforming it into a major player in the crypto market and rebranding it as “The Open Network.” It is used for network operations, transactions, games or collectibles built on TON.

Source: Ton.org

TON now boasts a market cap of $8bn, higher than the likes of Solana, Litecoin, and Shiba Inu. Moreover, as noted by Etherscan.io, 7,200 unique wallet addresses now hold TON — a figure that has increased significantly in the past week.

One of the main catalysts driving Toncoin’s recent price rise is its integration with Telegram. The Telegram platform, which boasts over 800mn users, integrated The Open Network’s self-custodial crypto wallet, named “Ton Space”. As noted in an article from Forbes, this move provided the ability for Telegram’s massive user base to make transactions using TON.

Source: Ton.org

TON features a wallet that provides commission-free crypto transfers to any other Telegram user, and is the primary way users interact with Telegram Mini apps, Telegram’s JavaScript based interface ecosystem that allows businesses to create in-app experiences.

TON uses a sharded, proof of stake consensus mechanism, meaning it can process transactions in parallel, improving transaction speed.

According to the TON Developer Report for Q2 2023, the network has experienced increases in developer activity. TON network’s development activity is up 102% year-on-year. By the end of June, the developer count reached 9,134, marking a 6.56% increase from April’s figure of 8,572.

Source: TON Developer Report: Q2 2023

TON’s strategy has been to leverage the Telegram community to attract projects to build, and ultimately use Toncoin. With such a vast audience now having direct access to TON, investor confidence has skyrocketed, leading to the recent surge in the coin’s value.