Q9 Weekly | Pathway to $100k

5 min readApr 27, 2023

27 April 2023

· Stan Chart: BTC could reach $100k by end-2024

· Crypto benefits as First Republic Bank shares drop 50%

· Record inflow of 572K ETH staked in a week

Bitcoin’s value could jump to as much as $100,000 by the end of 2024, the “crypto winter is finally over”, and the collapse of lenders such as SVB have solidified the case for BTC as a “decentralised, trustless and scarce digital asset”, Standard Chartered said in a note published Monday.

The note, titled “Bitcoin — Pathway to the USD 100,000 level”, struck a bullish sentiment stating “the current stress in the traditional banking sector is highly conducive to BTC outperformance — and validates the original premise for Bitcoin as a decentralised, trustless and scarce digital asset… Given these advantages, we think BTC’s share of total digital assets market cap could move into the 50–60% range in the next few months (from around 45% currently).”

“The broader macro backdrop for risky assets is also gradually improving as the FOMC nears the end of its tightening cycle. While BTC can trade well when risky assets suffer, correlations to the Nasdaq suggest that it should trade better if risky assets improve broadly.”

The note continues, highlighting the recent woes of USDC and other stablecoins have also benefited Bitcoin, and that its price jump this year has dramatically increased the profitability of mining companies. Many investors and analysts are now pointing to anticipation of the next Bitcoin “halving”, which reduces the rewards to miners by 50%, as a potential catalyst for another rally in the coin’s price.

BTC & ETH, % YTD

Source: TradingView

As for the past 7-days, Bitcoin gained 6% on Wednesday, breaking its five-day losing streak, as it reached $29,000 for the first time in a week.

The move up comes as concerns over US banking stability ramp up again, with shares of First Republic Bank dropping 50% on Tuesday after the San Francisco-based lender revealed that customers pulled more than $100bn from their accounts last month.

First Republic Bank, % 1 Month

Source: TradingView

Largely off the back of similar US banking concerns, Tether (USDT) has strengthened its dominance for the third straight month in April, with its market cap rising 2% to $81.5bn, while BUSD and USDC continued to lose ground.

However, the market is now slightly bearish for ETH as options tied to ether signalled a bias for puts, offering the purchaser protection against price slides. Ether’s one-month bearish out-of-the-money puts traded at a five volatility points premium to bullish out-of-the-money calls according to derivatives analytics firm Block Scholes.

Staking Venues by Market Share

Source: IntoTheBlock

Since Shapella, 1.37mn ETH worth over $2.56bn has been unstaked and withdrawn… Yet fresh demand for staking is picking up, largely driven by institutions.

ETH Deposits and Withdrawals

Source: Nansen

Source: Nansen

Source: Dune Analytics

Investors deposited some 571,950 ETH tokens into staking contracts over the past week, worth more than $1bn, according to a Dune Analytics data dashboard. This was the largest weekly token inflow in Ether staking’s almost two-and-a-half-year history.

Since the Shanghai upgrade went live the top five institutional-grade staking service providers — Bitcoin Suisse, Figment, Kiln, Staked.us and Stakefish — staked a total of 235,330 ETH combined, worth some $450mn, according to 21Shares’ Dune dashboard.

Source: Dune Analytics

The increased interest highlights that enabling withdrawals from Ethereum’s proof-of-stake chain has significantly reduced the liquidity risk associated with locking up tokens. Another likely catalyst for the record inflow has been investors choosing to reinvest their previously earned and withdrawn rewards from staking. The trend of reinvesting rewards is also potentially a positive sign for ETH price as it reduces sell pressure on the asset.

In the News…

· Coinbase sues SEC after months of silence from federal regulator

· Ethereum projected to use less power than the Eiffel Tower this year

· WisdomTree CEO says crypto is ‘natural evolution’ of ETF products

· Coinbase to face established rivals in international push

· Circle unveils new method for moving USDC between blockchains

· Binance is back in Russia

· Do Kwon seeks to dismiss SEC charges as South Korea rules LUNA is not a security

· Terra co-founder Daniel Shin and nine others formally charged by South Korea

· Arbitrum airdrops $120mn in ARB to DAOs

· CoreWeave, a GPU-focused cloud compute provider, lands $221mn investment

· Berachain raises $42mn to launch yet another Layer 1 blockchain